Five Rules to Handicap a Race like a Pro in Less Than Two Minutes
January 22nd, 2008By Jude T. Feld
I often get asked the question, “What is the easiest way to handicap?â€
In today’s busy world, a lot of players lack the time to sit for a couple of hours with the past performances, perusing every detail of a horse’s chart. These folks still want to play – have a little action at their local track or simulcast facility – and they want to feel like they have a chance of winning. Here is a quick selection method that will often put you on the same horse that a professional player has spent all evening locating.
RULES
1) Find the four horses with the best Beyer speed rating using their last three races. (Include all tied for fourth.) These are the only horses you will consider contenders in the race.
2) Eliminate any contender who has not finished first, second or third in a race in the last 30 days.
3) Eliminate any contender who has not won a race in their last 10 starts.
4) Eliminate any contender who has not earned 10% of today’s purse per start. (Before July, use this year and last year, from July on use the current year.)
5) Break ties using:
• Distance/Surface suitability
• Number of wins in last 10 starts
• Best price
REASONS
1) By Andy Beyer’s own description, his speed figures are a true indication of a horse’s ability. Assuming he’s right, the winner is most likely to come from the four fastest animals. This cuts the player’s work down considerably without sacrificing results. (If you don’t have a Daily Racing Form, use the best speed figures available to you.)
2) Current form is always hard to gauge. Only the trainer truly knows how his charge is doing, but for eons, an in-the-money finish has been the standard of a decent race. Statistically, horses that haven’t run well in their last three starts are horrible bets and this rule virtually eliminates those crows. By the same token, horses without recent races are at a statistical disadvantage. Sticking to the date rule might eliminate a few winners who just miss qualifying by a day or so, but it will keep the player off lots of stiffs.
3) It’s all about winning. If you can’t win one in 10, who needs you? It is amazing how many horses eliminated by this rule go off at short prices by virtue of a sharp recent race and then tank because they lack competitive spirit.
4) Class. One hardened speed handicapper referred to it as, “The Hobgoblin of Little Minds.†At most tracks throughout North America, a horse earns 12% to 15% of the purse for finishing third and 6% to 7.5% for finishing fourth. If an animal can earn 10% of today’s purse per race, mathematically, they are well-spotted to run a good race at today’s level.
5) After applying the first four rules, you will usually have between one and four horses left to consider. If one is left, that is the play, if two or more remain, break the ties by looking at the horses’ suitability to today’s distance and surface. Then look at the horses’ will to win. If still tied, bet the longest price. (Remember, you can always pass the race if it looks too tough.)
Give this method a shot the next time you are pressed for time or make an unexpected appearance at simulcasting. It will put you on a solid horse, who is not necessarily the favorite, race after race, and hopefully put a few dollars in your pocket along the way.
I will send a 2007 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) baseball cap to the person who finds the highest-priced winner using this method, on either Saturday, January 26 or Sunday, January 27, 2008. Any ties will be broken by the first person to e-mail racehorsereport@aol.com with their selection and the result.
